"Ingorance, Catastrophes and Finger Pointing"

I watched NBC's "Meet the Press" and saw Louisiana's Jefferson parish president, Aaron Broussard breakdown in tears and sobbing as he related the story of one of his staff whose mother was residing in a senior community in St. Bernard parish which is southeast of New Orleans and very hard hit with flooding (more than the images we have seen coming out of New Orleans.) As the days passed after the storm, this staff member, in hit and miss communication, kept telling his mother that help was on the way. She sadly drowned four days after the storm. FEMA and other relief organizations have not begun to address the lost parishes of St. Bernard and Plaquemines. Bear in mind, these parishes were flooded heavily before any levee break.

"We never anticipated that the levees would break."- President George W. Bush

It is yet to be determined how history will define this horrific event. What IS known and has been known for years is how vulnerable the coast of Louisiana and New Orleans would be in the event of a major Hurricane. In 2002 an extensive study was conducted by Louisiana State University and it's findings published in New Orlean's "Times-Picayune" and then turned over to the federal government. The findings of this study are playing out in eerie accuracy right before our very eyes. So who dropped the ball?

When a major hurricane strikes most areas, storm surge accounts for most deaths, we are witnessing this in Biloxi and costal Mississippi. However, storm surge in that circumstance retreats back to sea as the storm passes and the wind moves out what it brought in. Relief and disaster teams may quickly move into these areas that are now DRY and begin the process of recovery and clean-up. New Orleans and coastal Louisiana are VERY different as most of us now know. While the federal government denied funding for research and maintaining the fragile levee system and coastal wetlands protecting Louisiana, just this year President Bush signed and approved one of the biggest "pork" filled bills for highway improvement projects.

"How much warning did the government need?"

It's pretty pathetic when a novice hurricane tracker such as myself knew Friday night that this storm posed a pending threat to the Louisiana - Mississppi Gulf coast. Most National Hurricane Center models began to predict a growing monster and it's target. This is a Friday night advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Katrina:

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

...STUBBORN KATRINA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECTED
TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KATRINA TO 115 KNOTS (135 m.p.h.)...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR 124 KNOTS (145 m.p.h.) AND 922 MB. THE FS SUPERENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING KATRINA TO 131 KNOTS (150 m.ph.)*

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

*It should be noted here that Katrina over ran the model predictions at one point on Sunday, August 28th with a pressure of 902 mb and sustained winds of 185 m.p.h. with gusts to 215 m.p.h.

So we have the proof of denied VITAL federal funding for Louisiana and its fragile, unique levee system and wetlands. We have seen our federal government's denial of OMINOUS warnings from the National Hurricane Center. We have Louisiana Republican Senator David Vitter grading FEMA as a quote: "flat out F" in it's response to this disaster. We have the Head of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff, still in denial that the failure of levees surrounding New Orleans was a second disaster or "separate event" not anticipated to happen because the storm had already passed.

Ignorance and the failure of our federal government to heed so many warnings have brought a major U.S. city to it's knees, it's future uncertain. This is the one time in our nation's history that we CAN point the finger because so much was known and so little done. In the meantime, those in their high perches stare down on one of the greatest human tragedies ever to strike this country wondering what went wrong. Pity.

-Matt